Using firm-level supply chain networks to measure the speed of the energy transition

International climate targets depend on the success of the energy transition, yet systematic monitoring of how economies adopt low‑carbon energy remains underdeveloped.

In a study recently published in Nature Communications, researchers from the REMASS team -Stefan Thurner and Johannes Stangl- at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) reconstruct nationwide energy portfolios for 25,000 Hungarian firms between 2020 and 2024 using supply‑chain network data.
The dataset covers 75% of gas, 70% of electricity and 50% of oil consumption enabling firm‑level quantification of the speed of the transition toward low‑carbon electricity.

The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in decarbonization progress: while half of the firms increase their share of low‑carbon energy, the other 50% reduce it. Energy cost structures are strongly associated with transition behavior, suggesting technology‑related lock‑in effects. Extrapolating current trends results in an aggregate low‑carbon share of 20% by 2050, indicating insufficient progress toward climate goals. However, if firms adopted the decarbonization strategies of frontrunners within their respective industry sectors, a low‑carbon share of 70% could be achieved by 2050, placing climate targets within reach.

Read the full paper here.